Public health-focused use of COVID-19 rapid antigen and PCR tests.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, accurate PCR tests were augmented by the cheap, rapid, and logistically convenient, yet less sensitive antigen tests. In Israel, a testing policy shift was implemented due to limited availability of PCR tests during the Omicron surge. Thus, both PCR and antigen tests were used, as this was the only alternative for mass testing and surveillance at the time. Yet, evidence-based surveillance requires a robust understanding of the expected consequences of changing the testing policy. Using 41,065 paired tests performed by trained staff between January and April 2022 in Israel, we estimate how the sensitivity of antigen tests changes as a function of Ct value and other key covariates. The results reveal a logarithmic relationship between antigen detection probability and viral load, as quantified by Ct-values of the PCR tests. Further analysis shows a statistically significant association with an odds ratio of approximately 0.76 with each unit of Ct-value. The analysis suggests that in spite of their compromised sensitivity, antigen tests are a natural solution for routine use, while PCR tests should be considered in situations where a false negative result could have serious consequences. These findings are the foundations of policies that will utilize the strengths of the different tests, and achieve enhanced hybrid surveillance.

Clumppling: cluster matching and permutation program with integer linear programming.

MOTIVATION: In the mixed-membership unsupervised clustering analyses commonly used in population genetics, multiple replicate data analyses can differ in their clustering solutions. Combinatorial algorithms assist in aligning clustering outputs from multiple replicates so that clustering solutions can be interpreted and combined across replicates. Although several algorithms have been introduced, challenges exist in achieving optimal alignments and performing alignments in reasonable computation time. RESULTS: We present Clumppling, a method for aligning replicate solutions in mixed-membership unsupervised clustering. The method uses integer linear programming for finding optimal alignments, embedding the cluster alignment problem in standard combinatorial optimization frameworks. In example analyses, we find that it achieves solutions with preferred values of a desired objective function relative to those achieved by Pong and that it proceeds with less computation time than Clumpak. It is also the first method to permit alignments across replicates with multiple arbitrary values of the number of clusters K. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Clumppling is available at https://github.com/PopGenClustering/Clumppling.

A Dirichlet model of alignment cost in mixed-membership unsupervised clustering.

Mixed-membership unsupervised clustering is widely used to extract informative patterns from data in many application areas. For a shared data set, the stochasticity and unsupervised nature of clustering algorithms can cause difficulties in comparing clustering results produced by different algorithms, or even multiple runs of the same algorithm, as outcomes can differ owing to permutation of the cluster labels or genuine differences in clustering results. Here, with a focus on inference of individual genetic ancestry in population-genetic studies, we study the cost of misalignment of mixed-membership unsupervised clustering replicates under a theoretical model of cluster memberships. Using Dirichlet distributions to model membership coefficient vectors, we provide theoretical results quantifying the alignment cost as a function of the Dirichlet parameters and the Hamming permutation difference between replicates. For fixed Dirichlet parameters, the alignment cost is seen to increase with the Hamming distance between permutations. Data sets with low variance across individuals of membership coefficients for specific clusters generally produce high misalignment costs-so that a single optimal permutation has far lower cost than suboptimal permutations. Higher variability in data, as represented by greater variance of membership coefficients, generally results in alignment costs that are similar between the optimal permutation and suboptimal permutations. We demonstrate the application of the theoretical results to data simulated under the Dirichlet model, as well as to membership estimates from inference of human-genetic ancestry. The results can contribute to improving cluster alignment algorithms that seek to find optimal permutations of replicates.

Viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants following multiple vaccine doses and previous infection.

An important aspect of vaccine effectiveness is its impact on pathogen transmissibility, harboring major implications for public health policies. As viral load is a prominent factor affecting infectivity, its laboratory surrogate, qRT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct), can be used to investigate the infectivity-related component of vaccine effectiveness. While vaccine waning has previously been observed for viral load during the Delta wave, less is known regarding how Omicron viral load is affected by vaccination status, and whether vaccine-derived and natural infection protection are sustained. By analyzing results of more than 460,000 individuals, we show that while recent vaccination reduces Omicron viral load, its effect wanes rapidly. In contrast, a significantly slower waning rate is demonstrated for recovered COVID-19 individuals. Thus, while the vaccine is effective in decreasing morbidity and mortality, its relatively small effect on transmissibility of Omicron (as measured here by Ct) and its rapid waning call for reassessment of future booster campaigns.

Identifying protein function and functional links based on large-scale co-occurrence patterns.

OBJECTIVE: The vast majority of known proteins have not been experimentally tested even at the level of measuring their expression, and the function of many proteins remains unknown. In order to decipher protein function and examine functional associations, we developed "Cliquely", a software tool based on the exploration of co-occurrence patterns. COMPUTATIONAL MODEL: Using a set of more than 23 million proteins divided into 404,947 orthologous clusters, we explored the co-occurrence graph of 4,742 fully sequenced genomes from the three domains of life. Edge weights in this graph represent co-occurrence probabilities. We use the Bron-Kerbosch algorithm to detect maximal cliques in this graph, fully-connected subgraphs that represent meaningful biological networks from different functional categories. MAIN RESULTS: We demonstrate that Cliquely can successfully identify known networks from various pathways, including nitrogen fixation, glycolysis, methanogenesis, mevalonate and ribosome proteins. Identifying the virulence-associated type III secretion system (T3SS) network, Cliquely also added 13 previously uncharacterized novel proteins to the T3SS network, demonstrating the strength of this approach. Cliquely is freely available and open source. Users can employ the tool to explore co-occurrence networks using a protein of interest and a customizable level of stringency, either for the entire dataset or for a one of the three domains-Archaea, Bacteria, or Eukarya.

Full genome viral sequences inform patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread into and within Israel.

Full genome sequences are increasingly used to track the geographic spread and transmission dynamics of viral pathogens. Here, with a focus on Israel, we sequence 212 SARS-CoV-2 sequences and use them to perform a comprehensive analysis to trace the origins and spread of the virus. We find that travelers returning from the United States of America significantly contributed to viral spread in Israel, more than their proportion in incoming infected travelers. Using phylodynamic analysis, we estimate that the basic reproduction number of the virus was initially around 2.5, dropping by more than two-thirds following the implementation of social distancing measures. We further report high levels of transmission heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread, with between 2-10% of infected individuals resulting in 80% of secondary infections. Overall, our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of social distancing measures for reducing viral spread.

High-resolution inference of genetic relationships among Jewish populations.

Recent studies have used genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to investigate relationships among various Jewish populations and their non-Jewish historical neighbors, often focusing on small subsets of populations from a limited geographic range or relatively small samples within populations. Here, building on the significant progress that has emerged from genomic SNP studies in the placement of Jewish populations in relation to non-Jewish populations, we focus on population structure among Jewish populations. In particular, we examine Jewish population-genetic structure in samples that span much of the historical range of Jewish populations in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. Combining 429 newly genotyped samples from 29 Jewish and 3 non-Jewish populations with previously reported genotypes on Jewish and non-Jewish populations, we investigate variation in 2789 individuals from 114 populations at 486,592 genome-wide autosomal SNPs. Using multidimensional scaling analysis, unsupervised model-based clustering, and population trees, we find that, genetically, most Jewish samples fall into four major clusters that largely represent four culturally defined groupings, namely the Ashkenazi, Mizrahi, North African, and Sephardi subdivisions of the Jewish population. We detect high-resolution population structure, including separation of the Ashkenazi and Sephardi groups and distinctions among populations within the Mizrahi and North African groups. Our results refine knowledge of Jewish population-genetic structure and contribute to a growing understanding of the distinctive genetic ancestry evident in closely related but historically separate Jewish communities.

Mathematical and Simulation-Based Analysis of the Behavior of Admixed Taxa in the Neighbor-Joining Algorithm.

The neighbor-joining algorithm for phylogenetic inference (NJ) has been seen to have three specific properties when applied to distance matrices that contain an admixed taxon: (1) antecedence of clustering, in which the admixed taxon agglomerates with one of its source taxa before the two source taxa agglomerate with each other; (2) intermediacy of distances, in which the distance on an inferred NJ tree between an admixed taxon and either of its source taxa is smaller than the distance between the two source taxa; and (3) intermediacy of path lengths, in which the number of edges separating the admixed taxon and either of its source taxa is less than or equal to the number of edges between the source taxa. We examine the behavior of neighbor-joining on distance matrices containing an admixed group, investigating the occurrence of antecedence of clustering, intermediacy of distances, and intermediacy of path lengths. We first mathematically predict the frequency with which the properties are satisfied for a labeled unrooted binary tree selected uniformly at random in the absence of admixture. We then introduce a taxon constructed by a linear admixture of distances from two source taxa, examining three admixture scenarios by simulation: a model in which distance matrices are chosen at random, a model in which an admixed taxon is added to a set of taxa that reflect treelike evolution, and a model that introduces a perturbation of the treelike scenario. In contrast to previous conjectures, we observe that the three properties are sometimes violated by distance matrices that include an admixed taxon. However, we also find that they are satisfied more often than is expected by chance when the distance matrix contains an admixed taxon, especially when evolution among the non-admixed taxa is treelike. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of the nature of evolutionary trees constructed from data that do not necessarily reflect a treelike evolutionary process.

Clumpak: a program for identifying clustering modes and packaging population structure inferences across K.

The identification of the genetic structure of populations from multilocus genotype data has become a central component of modern population-genetic data analysis. Application of model-based clustering programs often entails a number of steps, in which the user considers different modelling assumptions, compares results across different predetermined values of the number of assumed clusters (a parameter typically denoted K), examines multiple independent runs for each fixed value of K, and distinguishes among runs belonging to substantially distinct clustering solutions. Here, we present Clumpak (Cluster Markov Packager Across K), a method that automates the postprocessing of results of model-based population structure analyses. For analysing multiple independent runs at a single K value, Clumpak identifies sets of highly similar runs, separating distinct groups of runs that represent distinct modes in the space of possible solutions. This procedure, which generates a consensus solution for each distinct mode, is performed by the use of a Markov clustering algorithm that relies on a similarity matrix between replicate runs, as computed by the software Clumpp. Next, Clumpak identifies an optimal alignment of inferred clusters across different values of K, extending a similar approach implemented for a fixed K in Clumpp and simplifying the comparison of clustering results across different K values. Clumpak incorporates additional features, such as implementations of methods for choosing K and comparing solutions obtained by different programs, models, or data subsets. Clumpak, available at http://clumpak.tau.ac.il, simplifies the use of model-based analyses of population structure in population genetics and molecular ecology.

The behavior of admixed populations in neighbor-joining inference of population trees.

Neighbor-joining is one of the most widely used methods for constructing evolutionary trees. This approach from phylogenetics is often employed in population genetics, where distance matrices obtained from allele frequencies are used to produce a representation of population relationships in the form of a tree. In phylogenetics, the utility of neighbor-joining derives partly from a result that for a class of distance matrices including those that are additive or tree-like-generated by summing weights over the edges connecting pairs of taxa in a tree to obtain pairwise distances-application of neighbor-joining recovers exactly the underlying tree. For populations within a species, however, migration and admixture can produce distance matrices that reflect more complex processes than those obtained from the bifurcating trees typical in the multispecies context. Admixed populations-populations descended from recent mixture of groups that have long been separated-have been observed to be located centrally in inferred neighbor-joining trees, with short external branches incident to the path connecting their source populations. Here, using a simple model, we explore mathematically the behavior of an admixed population under neighbor-joining. We show that with an additive distance matrix, a population admixed among two source populations necessarily lies on the path between the sources. Relaxing the additivity requirement, we examine the smallest nontrivial case-four populations, one of which is admixed between two of the other three-showing that the two source populations never merge with each other before one of them merges with the admixed population. Furthermore, the distance on the constructed tree between the admixed population and either source population is always smaller than the distance between the source populations, and the external branch for the admixed population is always incident to the path connecting the sources. We define three properties that hold for four taxa and that we hypothesize are satisfied under more general conditions: antecedence of clustering, intermediacy of distances, and intermediacy of path lengths. Our findings can inform interpretations of neighbor-joining trees with admixed groups, and they provide an explanation for patterns observed in trees of human populations.

No evidence from genome-wide data of a Khazar origin for the Ashkenazi Jews.

The origin and history of the Ashkenazi Jewish population have long been of great interest, and advances in high-throughput genetic analysis have recently provided a new approach for investigating these topics. We and others have argued on the basis of genome-wide data that the Ashkenazi Jewish population derives its ancestry from a combination of sources tracing to both Europe and the Middle East. It has been claimed, however, through a reanalysis of some of our data, that a large part of the ancestry of the Ashkenazi population originates with the Khazars, a Turkic-speaking group that lived to the north of the Caucasus region ~1,000 years ago. Because the Khazar population has left no obvious modern descendants that could enable a clear test for a contribution to Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry, the Khazar hypothesis has been difficult to examine using genetics. Furthermore, because only limited genetic data have been available from the Caucasus region, and because these data have been concentrated in populations that are genetically close to populations from the Middle East, the attribution of any signal of Ashkenazi-Caucasus genetic similarity to Khazar ancestry rather than shared ancestral Middle Eastern ancestry has been problematic. Here, through integration of genotypes from newly collected samples with data from several of our past studies, we have assembled the largest data set available to date for assessment of Ashkenazi Jewish genetic origins. This data set contains genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 1,774 samples from 106 Jewish and non-Jewish populations that span the possible regions of potential Ashkenazi ancestry: Europe, the Middle East, and the region historically associated with the Khazar Khaganate. The data set includes 261 samples from 15 populations from the Caucasus region and the region directly to its north, samples that have not previously been included alongside Ashkenazi Jewish samples in genomic studies. Employing a variety of standard techniques for the analysis of population-genetic structure, we found that Ashkenazi Jews share the greatest genetic ancestry with other Jewish populations and, among non-Jewish populations, with groups from Europe and the Middle East. No particular similarity of Ashkenazi Jews to populations from the Caucasus is evident, particularly populations that most closely represent the Khazar region. Thus, analysis of Ashkenazi Jews together with a large sample from the region of the Khazar Khaganate corroborates the earlier results that Ashkenazi Jews derive their ancestry primarily from populations of the Middle East and Europe, that they possess considerable shared ancestry with other Jewish populations, and that there is no indication of a significant genetic contribution either from within or from north of the Caucasus region.

Genomic microsatellites identify shared Jewish ancestry intermediate between Middle Eastern and European populations.

BACKGROUND: Genetic studies have often produced conflicting results on the question of whether distant Jewish populations in different geographic locations share greater genetic similarity to each other or instead, to nearby non-Jewish populations. We perform a genome-wide population-genetic study of Jewish populations, analyzing 678 autosomal microsatellite loci in 78 individuals from four Jewish groups together with similar data on 321 individuals from 12 non-Jewish Middle Eastern and European populations. RESULTS: We find that the Jewish populations show a high level of genetic similarity to each other, clustering together in several types of analysis of population structure. Further, Bayesian clustering, neighbor-joining trees, and multidimensional scaling place the Jewish populations as intermediate between the non-Jewish Middle Eastern and European populations. CONCLUSION: These results support the view that the Jewish populations largely share a common Middle Eastern ancestry and that over their history they have undergone varying degrees of admixture with non-Jewish populations of European descent.

Alternative splicing and gene duplication are inversely correlated evolutionary mechanisms.

Gene duplication and alternative splicing are distinct evolutionary mechanisms that provide the raw material for new biological functions. We explored their relationships in human and mouse and found an inverse correlation between the size of a gene's family and its use of alternatively spliced isoforms. A cross-organism analysis suggests that selection for genome-wide genic proliferation might be interchangeably met by either evolutionary mechanism.